2016 SAG Awards and Golden Globe Awards nominations predictions

It's going to be a very interesting few days

The Oscar nominations are still over a month away, but this perplexing awards season may come into a slightly sharper focus after the SAG Awards and Golden Globe nominations are revealed over the next two days.  Yes, it’s time to get excited everyone (and not just because it looks like the contestants for “RuPaul’s Drag Race” season eight will be announced on Sunday – oh, wait, that’s just me).

Granted, the HFPA are no barometer of how The Academy will vote.  In the context of the season the Globes are simply another promotional tool the studios can use to sell their contenders to voters.   SAG, on the other hand, is an integral piece on the road to Oscar.  The actors form the largest branch of the Academy and often illuminate the organization’s favorites at this early stage.*

*It’s important to remember that many Oscar voters still have a pile of screeners they don’t expect to get through until the upcoming holiday break.

Many categories for both awards shows are up for grabs so here are a few facts to consider before I throw out some educated predictions.

*Late arriving films usually do not fare well with the large SAG nominating committee.  Usually these pictures either cannot get screeners into the hands of voters until a few days before voting is due or they cannot get enough of them to attend special screenings.  There are always exceptions, but it’s important to consider in the case of “Joy,” “The Revenant” and “The Hateful Eight” (more on this later).
*Taking the last point into account, films that have released earlier in the fall historically tend to do much better than those released later.
*The HFPA, as always, have their favorites and films they simply do not like.  When you are dealing with approximately 80 or so voters making these decisions a few votes here and there can be a big deal.  The Foreign Press appear to like “Concussion” and “Sisters” more than most in the media and are questionable on two Weinstein favorites: “The Hateful Eight” and “Carol.”
*The HFPA will surprise now and then, but whenever they have a chance to vote a big star into a category they usually cannot contain themselves (i.e, Lady Gaga’s likely nomination in Best Original Song).

Keeping all this in mind, and realizing you’ll have to go somewhere else for TV category predictions, here are some thoughts on who will be celebrating over the next two early mornings.

 

SAG AWARDS PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

Prediction:
“Spotlight”
“Black Mass”
“Brooklyn”
“The Martian”
“The Big Short”

Possible:
“Carol”
“Creed”
“The Hateful Eight”
“Steve Jobs”
“Straight Outta Compton”
“Youth”

Lowdown: The important thing to remember here is that three films arrived very late to screen for SAG nominating committee: “Joy,” “Hateful Eight” and “Revenant.” Additionally, many of those screenings featured a significant number of no-shows of SAG nominating committee members. David O. Russell’s “American Hustle” also arrived late, but I’m not convinced “Joy” is good enough to overcome that. Tarantino’s last film, “Django,” missed out on this category because of no screeners and late in person screenings as well.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction:
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Lily Tomlin, “Grandma”

Possible:
Carey Mulligan, “Suffragette”
Blythe Danner, “I”ll See You In My Dreams”
Maggie Smith, “The Lady in the Van”

Lowdown: Taking a chance with Tomlin, but have a funny feeling she might trump Mulligan for the fifth slot.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Prediction:
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Michael Fassbener, “Steve Jobs”
Johnny Depp, “Black Mass”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

Possible:
Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Ian McKellen, “Mr. Holmes”
Michael Caine, “Youth”
Michael B. Jordan, “Creed”

Lowdown:  The fifth slot here is tough, but hunch is Depp and Redmayne sneak in past Cranston or McKellen.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction:
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
Jane Fonda, “Youth”
Elizabeth Banks, “Love and Mercy”

Possible:
Joan Allen, “Room”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”
Julie Walters, “Brooklyn”
Helen Mirren, “Trumbo”
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Rachel Weisz, “Youth”

Lowdown: Walters might have worked her way into this fiend if she’d been able to attend Q&A’s (she was working in the UK).  If Allen makes the cut it’s a big win for “Room” across the board.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Prediction:
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Michael Keaton, “Spotlight”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Idris Elba, “Beasts of No Nation”

Possible:
Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy”
Benicio Del Toro, “Sicario”
Jacob Temblay, “Room”
Joel Edgerton, “Black Mass”
Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”

Lowdown: Picking both Keaton and Ruffalo for this category might be a stretch, but if its as loved as expected Ruffalo may end up knocking Del Toro out of this race. Elba is the other wildcard, but something tells us he has a better shot than the equally deserving Dano.

GOLDEN GLOBE PREDICTIONS

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Likely:
“Spotlight”
“Concussion”
“The Revenant”
“Room”
“Brooklyn”

Possible:
“Carol” or “The Hateful Eight”

Lowdown: The word is the HFPA were not huge fans of “Carol,” but TWC has tried to sway them over the past week to crack the five. And, yes, “Concussion” is a surprise, but…that’s your HFPA.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Likely:
“The Martian”
“The Big Short”
“Joy”
“Trainwreck”
“Sisters”

Possible:
“The Lady in the Van”
“Spy”

Lowdown:  The buzz on “Sisters” is not good, but guess who loves the movie starring their three-time ratings bonanza hosts?

Best Director – Motion Picture

Likely:
Alejandro Inarritu, “The Revenant”
Ridley Scott, “The Martian”
Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”

Possible:
Todd Haynes, “Carol”
Steven Spielberg, “Bridge of Spies”
Quentin Tarantino, “The Hateful Eight”
Lenny Abrahamson, “Room”
Adam McKay, “The Big Short”

Lowdown: There are really only three locks. The question is who else makes the cut.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Likely:
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”

Possible:
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
Carey Mulligan, “Suffragette”
Cate Blanchett, “Truth”
Angelina Jolie, “Beyond the Sea”

Lowdown: Mulligan will likely make the five, but the question is whether Rampling can crack the field or Vikander (in the right category) will earn a nod instead.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Likely:
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Maggie Smith, “The Lady in the Van”
Lily Tomlin, “Grandma”
Amy Schumer, “Trainwreck”
Melissa McCarthy, “Spy”

Possible:
Meryl Streep, “Ricki and the Flash”
Tina Fey, “Sisters”
Amy Poehler, “Sisters”

Lowdown: You can pretty much set those five in stone although we don’t put it past the HFPA to give either Fey or Poehler nods here.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Likely:
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
Johnny Depp, “Black Mass”
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Will Smith, “Concussion”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”

Possible:
Michael Caine, “Youth”
Ian McKellen, “Mr. Holmes”
Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”

Lowdown: The “likely” should be your five. Hard to see any of them falling out considering the HFPA’s love for “Concussion” (and Will Smith’s star power).

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Likely:
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Steve Carell, “The Big Short”
Christian Bale, “The Big Short”

Possible:
Robert De Niro, “The Intern”
Bradley Cooper, “Burnt”
Chris Pratt, “Jurassic Park”

Lowdown: Yep, it’s one of those categories.

Best Performance by an Actress in Supporting Role

Likely:
Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
Jane Fonda, “Youth”
Elizabeth Banks, “Love and Mercy”
Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”

Possible:
Kristen Stewart, “Clouds of Sils Maria”
Rachel Weisz, “Youth”
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Joan Allen, “Room”
Helen Mirren, “Trumbo”

Lowdown: After some prominent critics’ groups wins Stewart make a late run to crash the party?

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Likely:
Michael Keaton, “Spotlight”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies”
Benicio Del Toro, “Sicario”

Possible:
Paul Dano, “Love and Mercy”

Lowdown: The likely group should get in. Who would Dano really bump?

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Likely:
“Spotlight”
“Steve Jobs”
“The Martian”

Possible:
“Room”
“The Hateful Eight”
“Brooklyn”
“Carol”

Lowdown: Intriguing battle for the final two slots especially as the organization does not seem to be overly enamored with “Carol” and “Hateful Eight.”

Best Animated Feature Film

Likely:
“Inside Out”
“Anomalisa”
“Shaun the Sheep”

Possible:
“The Good Dinosaur”
“The Peanuts Movie”
“Minions”
“Home”

Lowdown: Not convinced “Dinosaur” makes the cut.  The HFPA love the “Minions” franchise and have always had a soft spot for DreamWorks Animation. A category that could really surprise.

Best Foreign Language Film

Likely:
“Son of Saul”
“Mustang”
“The Second Mother”
“Labyrinth of Lies”

Possible:
“The Wave”
“Goodnight Mommy”
“The Rams”
“Viva”
“The Club”

Lowdown: A pick ’em for the fifth slot.

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

Likely:
Howard Shore, “Spotlight”
Ennio Morricone, “The Hateful Eight”
Thomas Newman, “Bridge of Spies”

Possible:
Alexandre Desplat, “The Danish Girl”
Carter Burwell, “Carol”
Alva Noto, Ryûichi Sakamoto, “The Revenant”
Harry Gregson-Williams, “The Martian”
Michael Giacchino, “Inside Out”

Lowdown: Don’t put it past the HFPA to nominate John Williams for “Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens” before actually seeing the film (Update: They can’t do it even if they wanted to because it wasn’t submitted.)

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

Likely:
“It Happens To You” from “The Hunting Ground”
“See You Again” from “Furious 7”
“Earned It” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”

Possible:
“Love Me Like You Do” from “Fifty Shades of Grey”
“Flashlight” from “Pitch Perfect 2”
“Writing’s On the Wall” from “Spectre”
“Simple Song #3” from “Youth”

Lowdown: Universal Pictures could have four out of the five nominees if everything falls their way. And, considering their year so far…

What do you think of these SAG and Golden Globes predictions?  Share your thoughts below.

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With over a decade of experience in the movie industry, Ellwood survived working for two major studios, has written for Variety, MSN and the LA Times and co-founded HitFix, Inc. serving as its first Editor-in-Chief and President. Ellwood spends his time relaxing hitting 3’s on the basketball court and following his beloved Clippers.
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